Australian A League · resolved market
Will Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x718b97860dad7ab387ebd3d1e993343277e267bdee98aec8cdacb4ff29b142dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 1,180$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.6 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 28c | 807.14$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.14 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 765.45$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.99 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked No | 72c | 762.61$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.08 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 26c | 631$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.94 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 74c | 600$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed No | 74c | 540.54$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 324.09$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.9 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 75c | 270$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 125 | 32.8%41 W · 84 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…4e57backed Yes | 28c | 217.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.86 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…272bbacked Yes | 28c | 217.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.86 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 26c | 193.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.39 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 66c | 182$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.12 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -5.5wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…0905backed Yes | 16c | 112.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.2wins | -0.53per pick | 69cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 73c | 74.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 33c | 74.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d44…2f97backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Yes | 34c | 56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 73c | 54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 72c | 48.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…52dbbacked Yes | 31c | 45.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 39c | 41.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 40c | 41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1c…dc02backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 74c | 35.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d3…432abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 60cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 73c | 14.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-01-17?No won
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-01-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.