Europa Conference League · resolved market
Ferencvárosi TC vs. Rangers FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1229937329def3fdf2f0ad8dedc988a6fa191b6d109ad9902cf096da4df94aca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Under | 56c | 2,256$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 44c | 2,051$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.3 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 48c | 1,062$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.38 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.19 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 41c | 488.06$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.41 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 376.96$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.33 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed Over | 40c | 302$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.2 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Over | 57c | 287.72$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.72 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…1742backed Over | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 74c | 168.92$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 43c | 119.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Under | 44c | 110$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47d3…4255backed Over | 57c | 107.02$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 43c | 88.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…07f2backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Over | 56c | 67.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 56c | 55.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf88…3ed6backed Over | 66c | 45.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…682abacked Over | 78c | 45.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Over | 69c | 42.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da9…9d56backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab93…8fe3backed Over | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +79%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…95a8backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +37%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Rangers FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Rangers FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Rangers FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Rangers FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Ferencvárosi TC (-1.5)Rangers FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.