Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C or higher on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12314ff748ea57dc4906363a8f6d4142f7865363538e42aab2154ea04517076d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 44c | 491.28$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.66 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 4c | 399.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 359.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 349.61$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 11c | 318.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 43c | 254.31$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.83 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 26c | 252.72$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 41c | 192.32$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 22c | 158.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed Yes | 44c | 147.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.46 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…5944backed Yes | 11c | 142.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 128.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 34c | 115.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7754…278dbacked Yes | 17c | 111.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 63c | 102.37$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 61c | 100.31$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 52c | 95.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 64c | 94.48$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 60c | 89.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…88b4backed Yes | 45c | 85.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 41c | 76.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 40c | 71.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 35c | 71.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 39c | 69.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…25ffbacked No | 70c | 69.45$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 46 | 82.6%38 W · 8 L | +7.8wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 59.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked Yes | 36c | 57.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked No | 57c | 55.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 56c | 54.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 46c | 53.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 47c | 50.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 76c | 48.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 59c | 48.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 60c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 60c | 43.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…b516backed No | 59c | 42.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked Yes | 47c | 42.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 59c | 40.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 47c | 40.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x112a…b221backed No | 68c | 40.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a9…75b0backed Yes | 48c | 39.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7980…0fabbacked No | 56c | 39.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 36c | 38.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48fd…aca7backed No | 66c | 37.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 32.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8073…25febacked Yes | 36c | 32.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 61c | 32.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bd…b85abacked No | 61c | 29.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5685…3056backed Yes | 47c | 29.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked No | 61c | 26.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 51c | 25.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…0736backed No | 56c | 24.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 63c | 24.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 47c | 22.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked Yes | 49c | 21.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 59c | 17.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C or higher on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.