Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2379ba88e12ea34f65df2ce9d9af766f488f4ee91704ac34632df9a5a4567001
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a87…70aabacked No | 4c | 698.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 79c | 363.57$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 67c | 172.41$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 163.88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 153.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 34c | 145.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.68 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 135.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 49c | 133.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…88b4backed Yes | 46c | 132.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 38c | 119.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10a9…75b0backed No | 25c | 108.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 104.61$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 32c | 81.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 69c | 75.08$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 32c | 69.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 43c | 69.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 67.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 49c | 66.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 58c | 58.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 53c | 58.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 76c | 57.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7754…278dbacked No | 27c | 57.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…d33ebacked Yes | 61c | 48.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…4f10backed Yes | 44c | 45.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 51c | 45.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd64f…b551backed Yes | 58c | 41.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec1…fbccbacked Yes | 59c | 40.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 57c | 39.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 38.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 38.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 35c | 35.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…e07dbacked Yes | 32c | 35.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…16c9backed Yes | 54c | 35.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65e3…0ed9backed Yes | 33c | 34.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 56c | 34.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 59c | 32.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 63c | 31.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 64c | 31.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 56c | 29.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8073…25febacked Yes | 54c | 28.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1d…55c4backed Yes | 68c | 28.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c47…5245backed No | 68c | 28.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 69c | 27.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…242ebacked Yes | 54c | 22.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…48babacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 67c | 19.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C or higher on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.