Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Saki Tange vs Colin Sinclair
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12412b4b220f2c59f78cbb81b1e8fb68bf7eb4c0fe22d9d568e7f6847d31da89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colin Sinclairof Saki Tange, Colin Sinclair
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6982…a165backed Colin Sinclair | 46c | 4,261$1,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,284.06 | 629 | 56.9%358 W · 271 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Saki Tange | 47c | 3,576$1,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,688.01 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0834…b743backed Saki Tange | 27c | 3,533$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.59 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Saki Tange | 47c | 3,079$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450.39 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Saki Tange | 41c | 2,278$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.78 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Colin Sinclair | 78c | 1,282$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.05 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Colin Sinclair | 57c | 1,263$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.33 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…1deebacked Colin Sinclair | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Saki Tange | 59c | 845.86$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.88 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colin Sinclair | 78c | 841.99$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.18 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Colin Sinclair | 58c | 802.03$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.19 | 637 | 46%293 W · 344 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Colin Sinclair | 70c | 538.43$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.59 | 640 | 65.9%422 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf2…cec8backed Saki Tange | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…5dbdbacked Saki Tange | 65c | 449.99$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.99 | 479 | 56.6%271 W · 208 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Saki Tange | 35c | 364.48$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.93 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Colin Sinclair | 43c | 275.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.88 | 790 | 52.9%418 W · 372 L | +24.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Saki Tange | 46c | 267$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.19 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Saki Tange | 38c | 236.45$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Saki Tange | 35c | 230.67$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.57 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Colin Sinclair | 67c | 226.53$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ec…23bdbacked Colin Sinclair | 77c | 225$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 167 | 69.5%116 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4741…6af1backed Saki Tange | 23c | 225$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Colin Sinclair | 78c | 224$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4232…d505backed Saki Tange | 20c | 210.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 372 | 35.2%131 W · 241 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e38…1b52backed Saki Tange | 24c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 619 | 24.4%151 W · 468 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…395cbacked Saki Tange | 58c | 196.62$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.04 | 222 | 52.7%117 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Colin Sinclair | 51c | 166$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.62 | 199 | 41.7%83 W · 116 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Colin Sinclair | 55c | 141.76$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 300 | 40%120 W · 180 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d2…4a24backed Saki Tange | 19c | 126.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 529 | 10%53 W · 476 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca2…088ebacked Colin Sinclair | 47c | 113.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 197 | 44.7%88 W · 109 L | +17.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Saki Tange | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…046fbacked Colin Sinclair | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 178 | 29.2%52 W · 126 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Saki Tange | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Colin Sinclair | 46c | 71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…d6dcbacked Saki Tange | 45c | 69.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 870 | 60.2%524 W · 346 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x103f…86dbbacked Saki Tange | 65c | 56.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 163 | 62%101 W · 62 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Saki Tange | 40c | 50.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Colin Sinclair | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ac…7deebacked Colin Sinclair | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 332 | 53.6%178 W · 154 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Colin Sinclair | 53c | 49.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Colin Sinclair | 68c | 43.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Saki Tange | 37c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Saki Tange | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Saki Tange | 28c | 39.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…23acbacked Saki Tange | 32c | 36.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 617 | 55.9%345 W · 272 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Colin Sinclair | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Colin Sinclair | 51c | 36.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Saki Tange | 42c | 26.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 156 | 5.8%9 W · 147 L | -32.4wins | -0.21per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Colin Sinclair | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d70…ae13backed Saki Tange | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.