Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1279291ed5e28d7049b1bd64685f02927faa7384674f9b92d0e70cce571f1ca8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 3c | 3,734$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 5c | 675.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…c545backed Yes | 9c | 628.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 581.53$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.47 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdc…a29abacked Yes | 6c | 527.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 435.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 15c | 399.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 17c | 302.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…832fbacked Yes | 23c | 280.59$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.72 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25dd…4f23backed Yes | 4c | 268.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e84…659dbacked No | 61c | 240.65$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 68c | 240.09$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.67 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 11c | 239.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 29c | 223.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 6c | 207.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed No | 66c | 149.96$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa18c…9f08backed Yes | 33c | 113.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263b…853dbacked No | 63c | 77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed Yes | 41c | 73.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…25fbbacked Yes | 23c | 65.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 65.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 20c | 58.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb91b…eca4backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 47.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 29c | 46.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…a3e7backed Yes | 53c | 38.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x69e9…a06ebacked Yes | 28c | 38.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 79c | 37.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…293dbacked No | 77c | 37.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 53c | 37.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb86…fb51backed Yes | 44c | 32.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…701ebacked No | 69c | 29.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed No | 51c | 27.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 61c | 25.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…0c2bbacked No | 54c | 24.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 66c | 23.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 65c | 17.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.