Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd17a98a803c76564e973ed3a4a724d75216afd38838510ea3f4997d2c5792f6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 1c | 4,893$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 2c | 1,023$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 2c | 629.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed No | 3c | 600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 587.26$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3d…1e5abacked No | 3c | 480$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25dd…4f23backed No | 5c | 273.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 14c | 265.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 13c | 249.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.24 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 19c | 241.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 80c | 236.47$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…5e7dbacked No | 75c | 210.5$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.91 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 80c | 206.33$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…832fbacked Yes | 66c | 195.1$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.18 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 6c | 194.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…fb84backed Yes | 62c | 178.36$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 67c | 156.73$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 155$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed No | 57c | 153.43$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 24c | 133$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.08 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…5c4fbacked No | 30c | 129.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 120.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 75c | 116.33$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6c…6cfebacked No | 76c | 97.58$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b77…dfdbbacked No | 10c | 96.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 47c | 93.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…cea8backed No | 56c | 79.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 64c | 75.39$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b0…33c7backed Yes | 38c | 75.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed Yes | 51c | 74.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe0…64b7backed No | 36c | 72.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6730…9634backed No | 78c | 64.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 67c | 58.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed No | 42c | 57.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 66c | 56.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked No | 43c | 56.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 20c | 53.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 52.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 56c | 52.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 73c | 50.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…a1d6backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed Yes | 43c | 43.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b48…ebdebacked Yes | 55c | 39.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 73c | 39.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1566…b513backed Yes | 52c | 38.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 55c | 37.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cc…da77backed Yes | 27c | 37.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…0b82backed Yes | 77c | 35.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 35c | 30.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 59c | 30.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…621ebacked No | 69c | 30.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7224…1b96backed Yes | 65c | 29.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 59c | 29.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…1287backed No | 60c | 29.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 46c | 27.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 70c | 23.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 22.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…41f8backed Yes | 54c | 21.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…c1c6backed Yes | 65c | 19.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3138…b523backed Yes | 57c | 19.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 57c | 17.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 72c | 17.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 16.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.