Tennis · resolved market
Adelaide International: Tomas Machac vs Quentin Halys
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x128645d2d1f59c75e27c86a6a05ecea46b05de5ff0ec2f1a8aa27af8ba25707a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Machacof Machac, Halys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Halys | 18c | 11,173$2,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,056.78 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Machac | 61c | 4,630$2,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,806.97 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Machac | 80c | 2,600$2,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.44 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Machac | 62c | 1,903$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.23 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Halys | 21c | 1,572$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.37 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Halys | 38c | 1,505$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.73 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Halys | 39c | 895.33$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.41 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Machac | 60c | 750$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Halys | 40c | 678$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.2 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Halys | 39c | 560$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.4 | 251 | 34.3%86 W · 165 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Halys | 39c | 400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Halys | 39c | 384.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Halys | 39c | 358.97$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 434 | 48.4%210 W · 224 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Halys | 15c | 344.91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Halys | 39c | 333.33$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 658 | 49.4%325 W · 333 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…3b80backed Machac | 59c | 266.78$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.38 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Halys | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 781 | 52.8%412 W · 369 L | +21.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Halys | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 407 | 44%179 W · 228 L | -14.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Halys | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Halys | 40c | 253.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…3f46backed Machac | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 50 | 74%37 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Halys | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5444…6f68backed Machac | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Halys | 40c | 200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Machac | 64c | 170.31$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.12 | 129 | 42.6%55 W · 74 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca39…4ed7backed Machac | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…1448backed Machac | 60c | 150$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 95 | 70.5%67 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Halys | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Halys | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c9c0backed Machac | 62c | 111.18$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Machac | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 128 | 46.9%60 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Machac | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Machac | 79c | 79.41$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Halys | 31c | 73.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Halys | 40c | 63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09e…d061backed Machac | 61c | 59.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Machac | 60c | 49.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Halys | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Halys | 29c | 44.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Halys | 40c | 36.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x072e…cab0backed Machac | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Machac | 80c | 33.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…db1bbacked Halys | 37c | 31.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -6.4wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Halys | 39c | 26.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Machac | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Machac | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e04…54afbacked Machac | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb02…b642backed Machac | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 63 | 74.6%47 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide International: Tomas Machac vs Quentin Halysthis page
- Machac vs. Halys: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Machac vs HalysMachac won
- Set Handicap: Machac (-1.5) vs Halys (+1.5)Machac won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.