Weather · resolved market
Will June 2024 have a temperature increase of between 1.23°C and 1.29°C?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12b00f5ee648b28ebad531c8f3eb4437310ad91d3502908d60a4a2ace02a47f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe999…6f77backed Yes | 30c | 2,090$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…9106backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 69c | 787$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed Yes | 30c | 550$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed No | 67c | 402.72$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…aba6backed Yes | 17c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x385b…4dd5backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 34c | 134.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 63c | 123.17$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…a73cbacked Yes | 30c | 119.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b3…55c7backed Yes | 34c | 111.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 36c | 110$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dc…7283backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a71…3c62backed Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…725ebacked Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…cf14backed Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa183…f6f4backed Yes | 36c | 28.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will June 2024 have a temperature increase of between 1.23°C and 1.29°C?this page
- Will June 2024 have a temperature increase of between 1.09°C and 1.15°C?No won
- Will June 2024 have a temperature increase of between 1.16°C and 1.22°C?Yes won
- Will June 2024 have a temperature increase of greater than 1.29°C?No won
- Will June 2024 have a temperature increase of less than 1.09°C?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.