Asian League · resolved market
Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12c3658add96a235ff96b1f37e585b6e541e93031dbac258c24779ef6a8dfaa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 10c | 446.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 22c | 338.35$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.28 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 79c | 210$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Under | 79c | 113$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 78c | 109.84$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850c…5f62backed Under | 79c | 97.66$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 21c | 82.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…c03abacked Over | 25c | 64.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 79c | 37.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 79c | 37.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 79c | 37.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 79c | 27.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 78c | 25.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 75c | 20.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 76c | 19.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 75c | 18.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Under | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Zhejiang Zhiye FC won
- Spread: Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
- Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.