CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: mellren vs Next UP - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12c8d68098b0d93d6f50a43f8bb172fd0c23e49da1ba1b52706a8ffc6a8b33d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- mellrenof mellren, Next UP
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Next UP | 34c | 2,546$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.38 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…218ebacked mellren | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9b…efabbacked mellren | 67c | 1,993$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.66 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed mellren | 54c | 1,213$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.98 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Next UP | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked Next UP | 31c | 800$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 1,011 | 52.3%529 W · 482 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Next UP | 46c | 495.96$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.14 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed Next UP | 9c | 441.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 293 | 40.6%119 W · 174 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…ca3fbacked Next UP | 31c | 397.81$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 358 | 47.5%170 W · 188 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Next UP | 34c | 278.64$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.86 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Next UP | 26c | 247.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 270 | 37.8%102 W · 168 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Next UP | 29c | 218$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.06 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Next UP | 29c | 214$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 2,136 | 42.9%916 W · 1,220 L | -68.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af3…8598backed Next UP | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 147 | 49.7%73 W · 74 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Next UP | 36c | 206.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.05 | 630 | 38.6%243 W · 387 L | -26.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…3ff8backed Next UP | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Next UP | 30c | 193.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 754 | 38.9%293 W · 461 L | -38.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x637b…948bbacked mellren | 52c | 177.65$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.27 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +9.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed mellren | 64c | 176.95$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 1,365 | 66.3%905 W · 460 L | +76.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Next UP | 31c | 135$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Next UP | 35c | 129$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b58…3474backed Next UP | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…2b50backed Next UP | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d3…bf38backed mellren | 56c | 20.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked mellren | 67c | 20.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: mellren vs Next UP - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: mellren vs Next UP (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #6 Playoffsmellren won
- Counter-Strike: mellren vs Next UP - Map 1 WinnerNext UP won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.