CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: mellren vs Next UP - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf66fc8cec355b241f1024ae936cb535c30984ababe14dd4957ae9e9b75dd613
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Next UPof mellren, Next UP
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdced…c799backed mellren | 52c | 1,154$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.85 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Next UP | 54c | 1,057$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.05 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Next UP | 32c | 422.36$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.39 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x637b…948bbacked Next UP | 36c | 384.94$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.17 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +9.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Next UP | 49c | 216.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.25 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f42…1f72backed mellren | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked mellren | 68c | 151.56$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.78 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed mellren | 71c | 115.89$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.24 | 890 | 46.1%410 W · 480 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Next UP | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88f2…a6c1backed Next UP | 32c | 82.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.98 | 133 | 52.6%70 W · 63 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed mellren | 74c | 79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 270 | 37.8%102 W · 168 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed mellren | 22c | 71.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Next UP | 40c | 59.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 754 | 38.9%293 W · 461 L | -38.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Next UP | 35c | 53.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 675 | 47.3%319 W · 356 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Next UP | 51c | 50.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Next UP | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked mellren | 72c | 41.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 422 | 55.7%235 W · 187 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Next UP | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked mellren | 65c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,848 | 41.7%770 W · 1,078 L | -69.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Next UP | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf5…1095backed mellren | 71c | 29.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed mellren | 69c | 26.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 457 | 54.5%249 W · 208 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Next UP | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 630 | 38.6%243 W · 387 L | -26.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Next UP | 60c | 24.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 399 | 55.4%221 W · 178 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked mellren | 72c | 23.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 746 | 53.5%399 W · 347 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked mellren | 72c | 15.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 2,136 | 42.9%916 W · 1,220 L | -68.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: mellren vs Next UP - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: mellren vs Next UP (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #6 Playoffsmellren won
- Counter-Strike: mellren vs Next UP - Map 2 Winnermellren won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.