Serie A · resolved market
Will Atalanta BC vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12d4297d9cee23540714954b2411ed779ae07d6febc3f28d65786c3cf9e1812f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 8,517$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,526.69 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 78c | 3,657$2,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.51 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Yes | 18c | 1,389$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.02 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +7.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 17c | 1,169$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.76 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,158$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 52c | 925.77$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.36 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…62ccbacked Yes | 19c | 842.11$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 13c | 815.38$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d0…7b84backed Yes | 19c | 673.68$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 21c | 299.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 242 | 38.4%93 W · 149 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe351…e48dbacked Yes | 18c | 274.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…fd61backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce04…9496backed Yes | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 18c | 189$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 419 | 43.9%184 W · 235 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…b035backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…8765backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3504…e042backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 18c | 74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 289 | 31.8%92 W · 197 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed No | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 85 | 25.9%22 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atalanta BC vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw?this page
- Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-13?Yes won
- Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2025-12-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.