Serie A · resolved market
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2025-12-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3fb7092ebbe5f070ca58ce0f722a9d66e34cdb9ec203814aad7ae9375194ef2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 10c | 5,100$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 135 | 17%23 W · 112 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 11c | 3,029$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.59 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 142 | 49.3%70 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 10c | 1,554$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.4 | 481 | 44.1%212 W · 269 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07c…c4b7backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 222 | 37.4%83 W · 139 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 11c | 909.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 10c | 854.94$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.49 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 2c | 819.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 10c | 606.07$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…4691backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab3…c6bbbacked Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 9c | 221.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Yes | 9c | 221$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 195 | 49.7%97 W · 98 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab3…5fa4backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…f967backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d6…46a6backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 9c | 186.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 7c | 175$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 248 | 49.2%122 W · 126 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…53cabacked Yes | 9c | 120.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc65b…1669backed Yes | 11c | 100.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…51a0backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 171 | 42.7%73 W · 98 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…0e91backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…9b7dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2025-12-13?this page
- Will Atalanta BC vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw?No won
- Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.