AI · resolved market
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12d74495538f39596baa20715deb5d6f0eea484d70edeb00d4b062815f5bd254
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,223 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53bf…bc10backed No | 50c | 2,927$1,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462.86 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…188dbacked Yes | 50c | 898$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked Yes | 40c | 860$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked No | 60c | 860$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee7…9c56backed Yes | 74c | 743.44$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 35c | 724.71$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.16 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 14c | 714.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 3.4%2 W · 57 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 60c | 657.67$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.07 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 39c | 613.27$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.57 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 12c | 480.82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee30…9297backed Yes | 76c | 449.99$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 61c | 407.04$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.36 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62ab…1f39backed Yes | 49c | 250$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…34d6backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 36c | 199.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0096…de43backed No | 21c | 199.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…5cc2backed Yes | 65c | 198.86$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed No | 27c | 184.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb513…f628backed Yes | 75c | 133.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…91c3backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaf…58e8backed No | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 116.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…aaf7backed No | 18c | 103$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 56c | 94.62$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…8d10backed No | 21c | 92.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 34c | 87.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 86.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…fdecbacked Yes | 61c | 84.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +35%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 19c | 76.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5de3…5753backed Yes | 76c | 45.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aaf…bd2ebacked Yes | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6741…0179backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd16c…9100backed Yes | 69c | 39.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 73c | 33.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 60c | 18.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf42e…9d01backed Yes | 75c | 14.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f55…880bbacked Yes | 78c | 14.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…0bfcbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?this page
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?No won
- Will ESPN Tournament Challenge be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?No won
- Will NCAA March Madness Live be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?No won
- Will Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.