Olympics · resolved market
Will Mathilde Gremaud (SUI) win the gold medal for Ski Slopestyle - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12debcfc5feaebe33681dc442688b491abaa2354ff8793bc8f99515281ae2129
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f3f…2a94backed Yes | 4c | 9,398$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,022.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x155e…cb08backed Yes | 4c | 1,362$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes | 57c | 404.65$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed No | 60c | 365.9$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.65 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 30c | 244.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 39c | 189.19$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 37c | 165.35$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7f…8a58backed Yes | 80c | 161.91$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 56c | 160.69$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.77 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed No | 64c | 129$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.09 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 42c | 113$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03b5…3481backed No | 21c | 112.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 14c | 105.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3662…ca07backed Yes | 65c | 92.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked Yes | 35c | 78.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x557e…5007backed Yes | 46c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 27c | 46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf278…c2f1backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aca…4c75backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2a…08d0backed Yes | 63c | 38.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…57eebacked Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 39c | 37.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0369…76c7backed Yes | 49c | 34.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed No | 73c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…b10abacked Yes | 52c | 26.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 62c | 18.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mathilde Gremaud (SUI) win the gold medal for Ski Slopestyle - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Eileen Gu (CHN) win the gold medal for Ski Slopestyle - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Kirsty Muir (GBR) win the gold medal for Ski Slopestyle - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.