Olympics · resolved market
Will Eileen Gu (CHN) win the gold medal for Ski Slopestyle - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ab803e476af826b94fadd809421c95d6ee6b183a7f1a238e87a869e68df23fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3662…ca07backed Yes | 34c | 208.37$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…6a90backed Yes | 36c | 124$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ee…d093backed Yes | 36c | 119$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e47…26c8backed Yes | 36c | 114$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…7a18backed Yes | 36c | 107$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Yes | 58c | 104.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…76cabacked Yes | 36c | 102$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…775fbacked Yes | 36c | 101$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…b58fbacked Yes | 36c | 98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed No | 61c | 95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d7…96d1backed Yes | 36c | 87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…6316backed No | 64c | 69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6070…9b40backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x541f…fb63backed No | 64c | 68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…4c5abacked No | 64c | 68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aab…c402backed Yes | 36c | 67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 51c | 66.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20d2…b26dbacked No | 64c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a39…28edbacked No | 64c | 64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…9070backed No | 64c | 64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…388ebacked No | 64c | 63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389c…9818backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e1…1488backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f8…53afbacked No | 64c | 59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98f…f7cbbacked No | 64c | 59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63e1…7e8fbacked No | 64c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…b33dbacked No | 64c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…bbfcbacked No | 64c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…f00cbacked No | 64c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab3…74c0backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…57eebacked Yes | 49c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 41c | 31.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5275…7ddabacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46a…2a88backed Yes | 70c | 28.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecee…0f63backed Yes | 47c | 25.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 52c | 23.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0146…e4b7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Eileen Gu (CHN) win the gold medal for Ski Slopestyle - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Kirsty Muir (GBR) win the gold medal for Ski Slopestyle - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Mathilde Gremaud (SUI) win the gold medal for Ski Slopestyle - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.