Movies · resolved market
Will “Nobody Wants This” be the top global Netflix show this week? (October 28)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12e324bd97fb03a14f1caf92fbdee759381dc871f89c68e5f0523058d9cc09c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 20c | 376.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.77 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 24c | 320$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 7c | 313.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 63c | 304$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.76 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 8c | 247.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe12…07cfbacked Yes | 55c | 221.76$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.17 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.32per pick | 30cpaid | +205.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 67c | 152.46$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…fae7backed Yes | 77c | 80.74$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 79c | 74.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 41c | 63.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…1456backed No | 17c | 59.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb3…dea8backed Yes | 80c | 30.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7af…bbf1backed Yes | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will “Nobody Wants This” be the top global Netflix show this week? (October 28)this page
- Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week? (October 28)No won
- Will “The Diplomat” be the top global Netflix show this week? (October 28)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.