MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1306b2af9e22c57cef7b0b0da162551089620acb1de8e21104f42f1f02b9be5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Under | 59c | 12,000$7,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,058.74 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 49c | 9,701$4,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,753.49 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 41c | 8,173$3,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,821.95 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…0845backed Under | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 42c | 3,722$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,174.83 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 49c | 1,537$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.99 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 51c | 1,120$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.17 | 27 | 92.6%25 W · 2 L | +9.8wins | +0.36per pick | 56cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Over | 67c | 800$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.63 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 50c | 691.99$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 49c | 576.06$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.27 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…5200backed Under | 49c | 400.31$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.15 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 49c | 392.15$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.15 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 14c | 308$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 102 | 15.7%16 W · 86 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +4.9wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 51c | 196.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 196$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…c0c8backed Under | 10c | 159.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 49c | 100.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Under | 49c | 91.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 202 | 58.4%118 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8563…5e98backed Over | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.0wins | +0.36per pick | 55cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…862abacked Over | 51c | 90$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.4wins | +0.34per pick | 58cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 38c | 50.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Over | 50c | 50.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 63c | 47.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 25c | 42.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cb…3636backed Under | 77c | 30.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 84 | 60.7%51 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.