MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5af41b095676ac87b44e773b62c2ed87e4e673a340c1bb6e162c476d656662ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefdd…017fbacked San Francisco Giants | 58c | 2,589$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.7 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 1,948$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.92 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 1,279$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.07 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 800$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 425.95$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.79 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 390.09$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked San Francisco Giants | 58c | 302.33$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.33 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 211.54$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed San Francisco Giants | 16c | 140.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d00…7507backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 120.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 116.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Francisco Giants | 17c | 100.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 90.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 60.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 52.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 28.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 21.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 346 | 48.6%168 W · 178 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…4213backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.