MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb2c7939506e35e05b86a721d48b2c03be23704d953443e4acc371aef3d6a76e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 55c | 92,825$51,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,771.25 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 45c | 90,000$40,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,500 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 46c | 2,280$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.72 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 54c | 1,740$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.4 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 1,279$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.75 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 619 | 47.7%295 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 57c | 782.73$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.01 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 47c | 634.38$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Over | 47c | 430$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.1 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 31c | 390.11$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.01 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Over | 16c | 269.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Under | 52c | 184.38$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 53c | 152.22$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 46c | 140$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 124.49$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Over | 47c | 117.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 544 | 55.1%300 W · 244 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Over | 46c | 104.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e4…4a19backed Under | 75c | 89.32$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 66 | 84.8%56 W · 10 L | +15.1wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…0845backed Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 40c | 86.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3711…7339backed Over | 46c | 84.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 47c | 83.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…74c3backed Over | 46c | 63.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 303 | 50.8%154 W · 149 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…9c13backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…b989backed Under | 53c | 40.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 124 | 57.3%71 W · 53 L | +7.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d6…02c1backed Over | 45c | 37.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 43c | 35.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 75c | 30.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…6ea2backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 54c | 28.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…2f83backed Over | 49c | 26.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 25.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Under | 66c | 16.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.