MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x133d0d16c80520d32086e6f61c528d7b8f2036369f0e591597c8b43ded122e29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Angelsof Los Angeles Angels, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb400…1ed9backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 22,169$12,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,368.8 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Houston Astros | 29c | 10,684$3,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,081.21 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Houston Astros | 45c | 5,686$2,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,559.05 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 4,766$2,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,668.71 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Houston Astros | 59c | 1,638$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.99 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 1,613$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.9 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Houston Astros | 58c | 1,405$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.76 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Houston Astros | 59c | 1,380$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.2 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…3de2backed Houston Astros | 58c | 1,020$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594 | 131 | 51.9%68 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Los Angeles Angels | 59c | 1,000$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Houston Astros | 41c | 600$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Los Angeles Angels | 41c | 590.87$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.61 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Houston Astros | 36c | 563.18$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.79 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Houston Astros | 60c | 441.69$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.01 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Houston Astros | 13c | 400$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9613…2d9fbacked Houston Astros | 60c | 222$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Los Angeles Angels | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Houston Astros | 59c | 179.68$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.27 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Houston Astros | 58c | 115.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Los Angeles Angels | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Houston Astros | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Houston Astros | 39c | 87.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Los Angeles Angels | 42c | 87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Los Angeles Angels | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Los Angeles Angels | 59c | 34.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…e019backed Houston Astros | 45c | 24.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Houston Astros | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Houston Astros | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.