MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x134c19424974a6709c0e601c3ec95c9d7b6194724c68fffd9940a55c18c40ecb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Los Angeles Angels, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 55c | 5,796$3,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,633.48 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Los Angeles Angels | 47c | 5,067$2,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,381.25 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Angels | 41c | 1,049$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.83 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Los Angeles Angels | 13c | 763.71$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.39 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 58c | 513.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.58 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Angels | 18c | 471.3$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.39 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros | 65c | 400.86$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.3 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed Los Angeles Angels | 35c | 286$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 45c | 244.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.74 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Houston Astros | 55c | 179$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.55 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Los Angeles Angels | 25c | 138.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Houston Astros | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 424 | 55.4%235 W · 189 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Los Angeles Angels | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 741 | 43.5%322 W · 419 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Houston Astros | 64c | 68.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 36c | 68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Angels | 21c | 62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Los Angeles Angels | 36c | 59.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Los Angeles Angels | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,141 | 46.3%528 W · 613 L | +36.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Los Angeles Angels | 36c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Los Angeles Angels | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked Houston Astros | 77c | 46.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Los Angeles Angels | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Houston Astros | 53c | 39.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Houston Astros | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Houston Astros | 64c | 34.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Houston Astros | 65c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Los Angeles Angels | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Houston Astros | 64c | 29.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked Houston Astros | 77c | 25.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Houston Astros | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 21.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Houston Astros | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.