MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65362e96902f3bc99a238e3374d6be4317f7c418ae30039de0d661be7b755961
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Angelsof Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed Houston Astros | 37c | 4,054$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 3,662$2,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.2 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros | 36c | 930.86$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.11 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 799.99$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Angels | 77c | 505.87$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.17 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 74c | 466$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.16 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Houston Astros | 24c | 453.3$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.79 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb85…f0a4backed Houston Astros | 28c | 341.28$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 304.71$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.74 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Los Angeles Angels | 74c | 290.58$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.61 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros | 26c | 192$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Angels | 77c | 176.67$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Houston Astros | 24c | 96.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…e543backed Houston Astros | 17c | 89.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Houston Astros | 21c | 82.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Houston Astros | 29c | 77.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Houston Astros | 20c | 73.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Los Angeles Angels | 64c | 61.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Houston Astros | 30c | 51.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0469…5eb0backed Los Angeles Angels | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…49e1backed Los Angeles Angels | 79c | 44.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 129 | 56.6%73 W · 56 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Los Angeles Angels | 66c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Houston Astros | 37c | 31.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Los Angeles Angels | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Los Angeles Angels | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.