Serie A · resolved market
SS Lazio leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x135fb0f6250f62373b940db66cf4d8caaddb6010b13aaf14a36d6c85b4fd6027
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 24c | 2,508$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.86 | 144 | 18.8%27 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 76c | 1,174$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.82 | 446 | 54.7%244 W · 202 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 25c | 1,100$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 162 | 32.1%52 W · 110 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked No | 47c | 1,033$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 53c | 1,008$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.12 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 412 | 53.2%219 W · 193 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed No | 76c | 939.2$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.41 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…59b8backed Yes | 17c | 705$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.91 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 23c | 288.6$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.23 | 380 | 39.7%151 W · 229 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 77c | 254.2$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Yes | 23c | 254.2$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.47 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 24c | 117.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 76c | 65.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Yes | 24c | 58.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf479…0fe3backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SS Lazio leading at halftime?this page
- Bologna FC 1909 leading at halftime?No won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: Draw at halftime?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.