Serie A · resolved market
Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: Draw at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafb5d87ae99d1a0f2b3d354aeaede29519e5f98454b3efd599d3c6c1bd565862
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 43c | 966.68$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.36 | 2,023 | 39.4%798 W · 1,225 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed No | 54c | 726.94$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.55 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 46c | 575.79$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.85 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 62c | 515.45$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.26 | 380 | 39.7%151 W · 229 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2b…3e5cbacked Yes | 44c | 503.11$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 48c | 408.2$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.31 | 2,579 | 45.6%1,175 W · 1,404 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 57c | 301.95$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.29 | 474 | 42.8%203 W · 271 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 45c | 235.81$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.7 | 550 | 38.9%214 W · 336 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…17c5backed No | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 54c | 137.63$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.32 | 446 | 54.7%244 W · 202 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked No | 55c | 118.87$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…415abacked Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 49c | 78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 368 | 27.4%101 W · 267 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x461d…5599backed Yes | 79c | 75.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 73.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 238 | 39.1%93 W · 145 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Yes | 44c | 43.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 54c | 32.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 675 | 53.8%363 W · 312 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: Draw at halftime?this page
- Bologna FC 1909 leading at halftime?No won
- SS Lazio leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.