Serie A · resolved market
Will Fiorentina vs. AS Roma end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1364382ec632cd0213fd9ae9503dae1dcf40c89e245cff338838a30925f2191e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x434e…a307backed Yes | 32c | 13,518$4,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,280 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 69c | 8,690$5,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,720.65 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 69c | 4,083$2,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265.52 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 66c | 3,249$2,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Yes | 32c | 3,156$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 2,658$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.91 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 68c | 2,000$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 225 | 51.6%116 W · 109 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…4996backed No | 71c | 1,130$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 27c | 1,020$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.6 | 200 | 33%66 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 68c | 619.35$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 68c | 600$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 70c | 530.5$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.15 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 79c | 334$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.86 | 223 | 73.1%163 W · 60 L | +20.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 21c | 303.31$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.76 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed No | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…f4c1backed Yes | 29c | 142.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…c620backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 76c | 112.73$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 242 | 38.4%93 W · 149 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 70c | 108$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 26.1%36 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 66c | 66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 50c | 64.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +30%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed No | 51c | 23.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 70c | 16.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fiorentina vs. AS Roma end in a draw?this page
- Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-05?Yes won
- Will Fiorentina win on 2025-10-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.