Serie A · resolved market
Will Fiorentina win on 2025-10-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb7fbb98b81d8982e13677f79061bd8452d96c8c18d4511bfc2cc37f340e4bd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f08…ed44backed No | 57c | 6,341$3,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,695.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 70c | 5,000$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 210 | 58.6%123 W · 87 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 4,845$1,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,457.74 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 43c | 3,723$1,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,608.57 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 38c | 2,714$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.34 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 67c | 1,040$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.59 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed No | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.29 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 30c | 699.99$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 30c | 598.55$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.56 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…20b4backed No | 44c | 577.27$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 30c | 472.86$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.26 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 57c | 296.45$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.43 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…8e0ebacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae7…7ee5backed Yes | 31c | 283.84$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 7c | 276.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 242 | 38.4%93 W · 149 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 16c | 272.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe876…7346backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…238ebacked No | 70c | 189$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…239abacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba5d…d1a1backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2de…9fb3backed Yes | 33c | 87.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 30c | 87.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x062e…9747backed No | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…e105backed No | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 74c | 82.44$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 30c | 72.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bb…a95bbacked No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -14.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…6f7dbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 73cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 69c | 48.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 30c | 39.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9597…ed86backed Yes | 31c | 38.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e8bbbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba03…f806backed Yes | 58c | 34.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed1…e492backed No | 70c | 32.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…70a4backed Yes | 43c | 31.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 67c | 17.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fiorentina win on 2025-10-05?this page
- Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-05?Yes won
- Will Fiorentina vs. AS Roma end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.