Tennis · resolved market
Rio Open, Qualification: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x136d1174616fd0e9eefdf2f8884b629bccd17bd949ec35c56540ecbe8a82ad8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marcondesof Tseng, Marcondes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Tseng | 37c | 6,158$2,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,262.76 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Marcondes | 49c | 4,560$2,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,323.86 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf68…6b13backed Tseng | 1c | 2,300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Marcondes | 77c | 1,250$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.63 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Tseng | 24c | 1,100$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 1,193 | 48.9%583 W · 610 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154d…a748backed Tseng | 1c | 1,070$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc537…f385backed Tseng | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8348…de9fbacked Tseng | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Tseng | 43c | 880$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.4 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x359f…fa80backed Tseng | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +6.7wins | +0.29per pick | 6cpaid | +304.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Marcondes | 66c | 655.07$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.92 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Marcondes | 70c | 430.78$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Tseng | 3c | 370$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 75 | 5.3%4 W · 71 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cde…6040backed Tseng | 78c | 355.19$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Tseng | 44c | 343.25$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.88 | 1,106 | 50.3%556 W · 550 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed Tseng | 17c | 295$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 307 | 41.7%128 W · 179 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Tseng | 42c | 285.08$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.42 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Marcondes | 28c | 253.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.87 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Marcondes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Marcondes | 74c | 202.33$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Marcondes | 62c | 161.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 307 | 50.5%155 W · 152 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…f163backed Tseng | 75c | 159.65$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.74 | 398 | 72.4%288 W · 110 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Tseng | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Tseng | 33c | 130.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Marcondes | 58c | 119.67$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Tseng | 50c | 105.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Marcondes | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Marcondes | 34c | 73.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…8d9bbacked Tseng | 17c | 70.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 319 | 41.4%132 W · 187 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…9827backed Marcondes | 79c | 56.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Tseng | 38c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Tseng | 72c | 44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…126cbacked Tseng | 66c | 31.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 110 | 50%55 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…5bd6backed Tseng | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 75%108 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x192f…352bbacked Tseng | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67d…ffc4backed Tseng | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Marcondes | 67c | 24.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Tseng | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 164 | 68.9%113 W · 51 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rio Open, Qualification: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondesthis page
- Set Handicap: Tseng (-1.5) vs Marcondes (+1.5)Marcondes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.