Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13ef57bea5fb3a120a554f19d6c4a4d0cc4cebb9d194611a500440e2fc4aa844
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b8f…1b4fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,411$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 67 | 1.5%1 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 1,280$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.86 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 33c | 506.58$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.46 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 241.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 19c | 159.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 10c | 156.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 147.56$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 71c | 142.03$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 77c | 126.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 22c | 111.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 99.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 82.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 37c | 79.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 77.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 28c | 62.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 25c | 53.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 53.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 72c | 53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 48c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 57c | 52.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 70c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 36c | 46.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 29c | 46.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 59c | 41.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 65c | 40.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 30c | 36.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 63c | 33.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 58c | 30.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 73c | 27.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa73f…064bbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…8193backed Yes | 62c | 24.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 21.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed No | 76c | 20.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 79c | 19.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 56c | 19.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 75c | 15.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.