Lol · resolved market
LoL: NightBirds vs Inside Games (BO1) - Hitpoint Masters Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1410c59c0b10d8585aa9ba2cd1dcdce5fed0dc9758913bdcee498440652befcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NightBirdsof NightBirds, Inside Games
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Inside Games | 12c | 4,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 416 | 44.2%184 W · 232 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Inside Games | 15c | 3,100$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.41 | 191 | 46.1%88 W · 103 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Inside Games | 15c | 1,786$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.92 | 360 | 34.4%124 W · 236 L | -21.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Inside Games | 15c | 1,606$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.9 | 924 | 50.9%470 W · 454 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Inside Games | 23c | 1,500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 771 | 31.8%245 W · 526 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Inside Games | 15c | 1,442$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.96 | 427 | 35.4%151 W · 276 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc3…a6dabacked Inside Games | 15c | 1,376$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Inside Games | 15c | 1,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed Inside Games | 16c | 1,204$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.72 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Inside Games | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…c005backed Inside Games | 15c | 614$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.75 | 225 | 36.9%83 W · 142 L | -11.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3bc…4c8cbacked Inside Games | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Inside Games | 21c | 595$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.98 | 390 | 44.9%175 W · 215 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Inside Games | 20c | 340$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 219 | 43.8%96 W · 123 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Inside Games | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,447 | 13.3%192 W · 1,255 L | -109.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Inside Games | 19c | 273.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 190 | 42.1%80 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Inside Games | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 291 | 43.3%126 W · 165 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…7b70backed Inside Games | 14c | 256.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked Inside Games | 14c | 212.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 288 | 37.5%108 W · 180 L | -16.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67cc…942fbacked Inside Games | 15c | 180$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 151 | 41.7%63 W · 88 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…1cefbacked Inside Games | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Inside Games | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed Inside Games | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.