NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Penguins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x142ab0f78320efdada71ebbefd2cf0352f414aa5029c6c7f136ac7315cb3ee49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penguinsof Maple Leafs, Penguins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Penguins | 39c | 1,556$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.38 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 750$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e1…69a4backed Maple Leafs | 65c | 614.83$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Penguins | 46c | 513.68$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.34 | 313 | 34.8%109 W · 204 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Penguins | 38c | 400$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed Maple Leafs | 27c | 300.16$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.07 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed Penguins | 68c | 239.68$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.67 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…8f8bbacked Penguins | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Penguins | 38c | 230.29$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.92 | 448 | 48.9%219 W · 229 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Penguins | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 205 | 40.5%83 W · 122 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1793…51dfbacked Penguins | 77c | 217.61$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Maple Leafs | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Maple Leafs | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…a572backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Penguins | 71c | 187.29$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 170 | 54.7%93 W · 77 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 161.17$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.48 | 355 | 45.4%161 W · 194 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Maple Leafs | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 508 | 57.7%293 W · 215 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185c…dee1backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 128.69$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…4a62backed Maple Leafs | 63c | 111.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 731 | 57.5%420 W · 311 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…9471backed Penguins | 42c | 101.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Penguins | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -14.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa69e…848bbacked Penguins | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a7…c75abacked Penguins | 41c | 72.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…2f6cbacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b36cbacked Penguins | 41c | 60.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab7a…e732backed Penguins | 29c | 60.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 58.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 56.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e23…51c3backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 55.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3c…750bbacked Maple Leafs | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…7ec6backed Penguins | 41c | 51.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…b2c6backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf93b…bb37backed Penguins | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…b250backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4a…1678backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 49.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Penguins | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1aa…8ce4backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 44.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07f4…fe3dbacked Maple Leafs | 59c | 40.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…19d6backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 37.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde5f…fdecbacked Maple Leafs | 59c | 35.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f11…a95ebacked Penguins | 40c | 35.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +304%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48b5…0effbacked Maple Leafs | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Penguins | 31c | 33.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…909bbacked Maple Leafs | 71c | 31.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce4…7addbacked Maple Leafs | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb098…161dbacked Maple Leafs | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…5f53backed Penguins | 40c | 30.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf814…9951backed Penguins | 41c | 29.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +109.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8463…145bbacked Maple Leafs | 71c | 28.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd829…3fc4backed Maple Leafs | 76c | 26.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 21.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 840 | 51.4%432 W · 408 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3a…f5e5backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 20.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…4e3dbacked Maple Leafs | 75c | 19.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49cc…62f6backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 19.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a2…866dbacked Maple Leafs | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.