Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1436411d23c054c5a4337af6a3bdb86f725bcbdbab2e100573d4f05db862a54b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- XLG Gamingof XLG Gaming, Bilibili Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1531…f303backed Bilibili Gaming | 3c | 986.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +129%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed Bilibili Gaming | 42c | 440.63$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.52 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…50c3backed XLG Gaming | 73c | 358.43$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.43 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Bilibili Gaming | 12c | 341.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…b346backed XLG Gaming | 60c | 331.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.75 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed Bilibili Gaming | 10c | 251.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Bilibili Gaming | 20c | 250.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 553 | 48.3%267 W · 286 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…a69abacked Bilibili Gaming | 10c | 199.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Bilibili Gaming | 14c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 395 | 45.8%181 W · 214 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…ae95backed Bilibili Gaming | 15c | 131.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Bilibili Gaming | 20c | 117$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee1…377abacked Bilibili Gaming | 49c | 85.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Bilibili Gaming | 37c | 60.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 931 | 48.1%448 W · 483 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Bilibili Gaming | 33c | 59.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 520 | 50%260 W · 260 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed XLG Gaming | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 796 | 50%398 W · 398 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed XLG Gaming | 62c | 50.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 316 | 34.2%108 W · 208 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5747…7fdfbacked XLG Gaming | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 628 | 56.4%354 W · 274 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Map Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5)XLG Gaming won
- Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Kickoff PlayoffsXLG Gaming won
- Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Map 1 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Map 3 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Map 4 WinnerXLG Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.