Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Map 3 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb6d624783c8fe5f5aefe676ce7d1f508397c43ef69a1893e6d91479c16857d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bilibili Gamingof XLG Gaming, Bilibili Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd995…2b51backed Bilibili Gaming | 35c | 3,747$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,441.32 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb726…0664backed XLG Gaming | 62c | 1,624$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Bilibili Gaming | 13c | 1,092$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.06 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Bilibili Gaming | 34c | 673.69$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.59 | 321 | 41.7%134 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Bilibili Gaming | 66c | 666$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.44 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b6…ad8ebacked XLG Gaming | 60c | 500$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked XLG Gaming | 55c | 482.99$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.12 | 191 | 57.1%109 W · 82 L | +23.4wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x33e6…0244backed Bilibili Gaming | 36c | 442.07$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…50c3backed XLG Gaming | 65c | 339.45$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Bilibili Gaming | 68c | 300$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 66 | 72.7%48 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1531…f303backed Bilibili Gaming | 11c | 270$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +129%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Bilibili Gaming | 46c | 218.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.59 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked Bilibili Gaming | 68c | 201.81$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed XLG Gaming | 37c | 190.93$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 316 | 34.2%108 W · 208 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…ae95backed XLG Gaming | 39c | 186.35$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.9 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Bilibili Gaming | 18c | 183.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.37 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…d943backed XLG Gaming | 58c | 172.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed XLG Gaming | 54c | 164.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed XLG Gaming | 49c | 146.68$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 796 | 50%398 W · 398 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…d266backed XLG Gaming | 45c | 130$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…ada4backed Bilibili Gaming | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked XLG Gaming | 57c | 114$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.47 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd31…8004backed Bilibili Gaming | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a42…6338backed Bilibili Gaming | 48c | 93.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked XLG Gaming | 60c | 85.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 520 | 50%260 W · 260 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…338abacked XLG Gaming | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…7f75backed XLG Gaming | 35c | 64.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…c63ebacked XLG Gaming | 32c | 59.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf09c…8535backed Bilibili Gaming | 59c | 52.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd00d…d81cbacked XLG Gaming | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5860…020bbacked XLG Gaming | 59c | 33.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ca…eb95backed Bilibili Gaming | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e0…70f8backed XLG Gaming | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Map 3 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Map Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5)XLG Gaming won
- Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Kickoff PlayoffsXLG Gaming won
- Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Map 1 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Map 2 WinnerXLG Gaming won
- Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Map 4 WinnerXLG Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.