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Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Kickoff Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
XLG Gamingof XLG Gaming, Bilibili Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$107,857
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$114,495

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,857 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 234 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc65c…ea39backed XLG Gaming57c18,490$10,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,958.1534356.9%195 W · 148 L+23.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bilibili Gaming42c12,500$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,30019046.3%88 W · 102 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+26.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked XLG Gaming58c6,500$3,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,73026838.1%102 W · 166 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Bilibili Gaming40c5,761$2,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,304.597236.1%26 W · 46 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked XLG Gaming59c5,251$3,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,153.6178162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e0…461fbacked Bilibili Gaming43c4,833$2,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,078.241353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4762…ba70backed XLG Gaming58c3,841$2,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,613.2213558.5%79 W · 56 L+11.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked Bilibili Gaming61c2,873$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,740.494040%16 W · 24 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Bilibili Gaming44c2,586$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.786746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Bilibili Gaming43c2,080$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.1233759.6%201 W · 136 L+18.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Bilibili Gaming49c1,851$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.711854.2%64 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Bilibili Gaming48c1,765$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.6928541.1%117 W · 168 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed XLG Gaming54c1,596$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.073729.7%11 W · 26 L-5.6wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-48.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7d91…bb2abacked XLG Gaming68c1,477$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.67659.2%45 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb726…0664backed XLG Gaming69c1,455$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-51.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb877…a13fbacked Bilibili Gaming48c1,440$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.8624732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed XLG Gaming47c1,427$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.089837.8%37 W · 61 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Bilibili Gaming45c1,396$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.1919157.1%109 W · 82 L+23.4wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+26.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed Bilibili Gaming43c1,388$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.924744.7%21 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca47…3ef4backed XLG Gaming59c1,309$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.222065%13 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed XLG Gaming56c1,270$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.8540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd995…2b51backed Bilibili Gaming8c1,236$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.962924.1%7 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Bilibili Gaming34c1,180$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.7132241.9%135 W · 187 L-15.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked XLG Gaming55c1,104$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.6218241.2%75 W · 107 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33e6…0244backed Bilibili Gaming29c1,093$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.73333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed XLG Gaming51c1,072$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.6326634.6%92 W · 174 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed XLG Gaming52c1,031$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.9877929.5%230 W · 549 L-72.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf5a5…5303backed XLG Gaming52c1,014$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.06944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-29%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacd2…29a2backed Bilibili Gaming45c999.99$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed XLG Gaming59c999.97$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.9928740.8%117 W · 170 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13d6…926ebacked Bilibili Gaming42c999.73$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.063246.9%15 W · 17 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+37.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6998…ae95backed Bilibili Gaming32c924.31$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.832634.6%9 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0fb…7e77backed Bilibili Gaming41c912$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…1a20backed Bilibili Gaming43c902$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.861435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Bilibili Gaming42c871.19$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.95125.5%13 W · 38 L-8.0wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-37.1%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed Bilibili Gaming42c870.24$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.510844.4%48 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68fc…ad11backed Bilibili Gaming41c757$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63ad…790cbacked Bilibili Gaming39c742.23$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2901936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Bilibili Gaming46c730$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.614447.2%68 W · 76 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae96…e1a2backed Bilibili Gaming41c726$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+163.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Bilibili Gaming33c710.08$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.23650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+64.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2b…3377backed XLG Gaming69c708.13$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.13580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Bilibili Gaming41c699.99$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28755152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed XLG Gaming59c665.99$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.067052.9%37 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed XLG Gaming59c640.83$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.86051.7%31 W · 29 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+10.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1531…f303backed Bilibili Gaming15c639.51$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.56633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+129%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…61dabacked Bilibili Gaming41c637$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.1730%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Bilibili Gaming43c627.95$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.024940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7fcf…4b45backed XLG Gaming59c612$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.92366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+34%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed XLG Gaming59c606.18$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.3346526.7%124 W · 341 L-25.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Bilibili Gaming41c568.29$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23315343.8%67 W · 86 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed XLG Gaming57c567.23$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2458551.8%44 W · 41 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff7c…c36abacked Bilibili Gaming41c554$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.38850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Bilibili Gaming41c524.39$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2159052.2%47 W · 43 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bilibili Gaming41c515.12$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.219248.4%93 W · 99 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed XLG Gaming64c509.68$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.6834853.7%187 W · 161 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe30c…3f38backed Bilibili Gaming44c508.92$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked XLG Gaming55c501.11$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.623050%15 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+8.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Bilibili Gaming43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21531232.7%102 W · 210 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd07…5ce1backed Bilibili Gaming55c486.51$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df4…0540backed XLG Gaming76c479.02$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.082157.1%12 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf48a…3594backed XLG Gaming66c476.1$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.699100%9 W · 0 L+2.9wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Bilibili Gaming47c469$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.6210840.7%44 W · 64 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Bilibili Gaming38c445.04$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.118438.1%32 W · 52 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfec0…aeb9backed Bilibili Gaming42c442.41$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-65.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed Bilibili Gaming39c442$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.483345.5%15 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e2e…b5a5backed Bilibili Gaming48c424.41$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.61650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcecf…e84fbacked Bilibili Gaming36c411.28$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe62c…d9a6backed XLG Gaming66c406.67$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.782128.6%6 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-32.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc62b…625dbacked XLG Gaming50c403.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.85540%22 W · 33 L-6.7wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-26.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Bilibili Gaming41c400$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16417543.4%76 W · 99 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef71…898bbacked Bilibili Gaming35c397$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.951154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe255…57c9backed XLG Gaming59c397$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.77475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b7c…bfd7backed XLG Gaming54c384.68$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.47666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+27.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9a9…9bf7backed Bilibili Gaming31c382.01$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.861827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-45.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Bilibili Gaming44c376$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.052147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x174a…6f03backed XLG Gaming59c375$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.754100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+79.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd47b…5a9ebacked XLG Gaming59c363$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick64cpaid+58.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba5b…8ea5backed XLG Gaming59c360$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.63100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+84.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Bilibili Gaming44c356$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.928835.2%31 W · 57 L-9.6wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-32.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xce8e…41debacked XLG Gaming59c351$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.91771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Bilibili Gaming43c347.46$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.4155348.3%267 W · 286 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Bilibili Gaming27c346.01$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4427411.3%31 W · 243 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9031…5265backed XLG Gaming61c321.1$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.6810661.3%65 W · 41 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7447…91ecbacked Bilibili Gaming47c312.27$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.11947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed XLG Gaming58c305.75$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.6670251.3%360 W · 342 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc5…7b98backed Bilibili Gaming47c304.52$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-64%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8de…a500backed XLG Gaming59c300$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Bilibili Gaming42c296.93$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.5852050%260 W · 260 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed XLG Gaming39c286.59$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.721,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc983…ebf0backed XLG Gaming49c279.26$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.292951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa023…9792backed Bilibili Gaming64c274.21$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf745…6e59backed XLG Gaming59c274$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf901…5f48backed Bilibili Gaming43c265.12$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1144551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd120…19fcbacked Bilibili Gaming38c261.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04a7…164bbacked Bilibili Gaming40c256$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.3612650.8%64 W · 62 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7100…b346backed Bilibili Gaming40c247.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9403…7361backed Bilibili Gaming40c246.24$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-62.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked XLG Gaming54c245$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.867953.2%42 W · 37 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66ed…d321backed XLG Gaming47c242.48$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.033961.5%24 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.