Premier League · resolved market
FA Cup: Plymouth Argyle vs. Liverpool (To Advance)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1459714fd0e58801af95a656e908462e4b3e60511e5e8247cafa92b560bb1d75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Plymouthof Plymouth, Liverpool
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf00f…711abacked Plymouth | 7c | 3,789$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,531.52 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Plymouth | 77c | 3,151$2,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.32 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Liverpool | 30c | 2,032$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.1 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Plymouth | 70c | 458.21$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.46 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Plymouth | 5c | 221.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.67 | 655 | 57.7%378 W · 277 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Plymouth | 20c | 209.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.92 | 168 | 51.2%86 W · 82 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Liverpool | 53c | 207.98$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.65 | 290 | 44.8%130 W · 160 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e3…83d2backed Plymouth | 8c | 206.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.75 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Liverpool | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked Plymouth | 8c | 152.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.95 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5826…d9f1backed Plymouth | 8c | 125$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +134.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Plymouth | 70c | 114.71$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Liverpool | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Plymouth | 62c | 95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 369 | 54.5%201 W · 168 L | +50.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Liverpool | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Plymouth | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 428 | 62.4%267 W · 161 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6834…2bd2backed Plymouth | 70c | 58.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0560…d77dbacked Liverpool | 39c | 42.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed Plymouth | 70c | 36.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7657…4fa6backed Liverpool | 60c | 28.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Liverpool | 55c | 20.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.