Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x145d2b560302dc7e82ef4cb285333ae45795152a9bddd2759b1179acc2874bad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 1c | 9,329$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.38 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf568…62adbacked Yes | 0c | 4,756$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 2c | 1,071$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 1c | 913.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 22c | 759.62$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.08 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 3c | 549.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…7825backed Yes | 4c | 374.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 349.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 346.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 74c | 341$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 49c | 337.12$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.02 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 77c | 316.07$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.49 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 5c | 286.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 9c | 263.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 9c | 199.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 163.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.83 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 14c | 158.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 16c | 122.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 55c | 95.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed No | 22c | 53.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 75c | 41.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 80c | 35.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 29.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 67c | 21.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 66c | 17.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x20f2…3b5cbacked No | 75c | 14.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 51°F or below on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 70°F or higher on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on April 10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.