TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on April 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,952
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,233

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,952 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes28c1,510$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.774,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No63c587.37$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.8712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes31c570.35$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.731,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes26c478.09$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.235,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes29c442.04$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.8617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes27c378.5$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.751,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes31c337.47$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.2421436%77 W · 137 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes29c299.19$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.211,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed Yes39c293.68$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.4127841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No21c228.8$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5372222.3%161 W · 561 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes16c217.24$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.751,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes23c199.72$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.057542.7%32 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes51c199.38$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.1865043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No69c198.01$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.462,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b20…62cbbacked No74c196.98$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.0511874.6%88 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes34c189.8$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.348,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40b…3ee4backed Yes34c176.91$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.041010%1 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick28cpaid-70.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked No70c141.11$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3133450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes67c138.14$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5743238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes27c133.6$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.5539535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4438…beb2backed No77c126.54$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.72560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf66…0179backed Yes35c120.62$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.531729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43b6…77a7backed Yes41c115.7$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.679344.1%41 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes29c112.58$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.539,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x989a…b73fbacked Yes43c107.06$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0918164.1%116 W · 65 L+29.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+37%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes28c102.45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.7621235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes17c99.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8381234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes25c99.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9946232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No71c99.79$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.764,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes27c98.59$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.6898738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No71c98.47$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.49,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c7…ea4ebacked No75c98.18$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.421258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No35c94.5$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8166141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes43c93.49$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.157,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No70c93.12$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.051,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No68c87.35$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2442469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ea1…d176backed No61c83.7$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0620353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes21c79.17$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8634618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes48c79.13$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2128648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74ea…b265backed Yes47c77.44$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9821142.7%90 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9003…4c59backed Yes31c69.83$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.118531.8%27 W · 58 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51b3…16a2backed Yes31c67.89$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.793630.6%11 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1534…c5e4backed Yes17c66.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.42475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+126.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f8a…b076backed Yes29c66.37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0520835.6%74 W · 134 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed No50c59.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No73c56.82$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7652571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed5b…a76abacked No57c52.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.719047.4%90 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed No72c50.5$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1614671.2%104 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No53c47.91$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.241,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No69c46.85$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5533567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No46c45.89$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1120958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes31c45.24$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0235362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No65c45.15$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes33c45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.129640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes29c44.71$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.721440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes40c44.58$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.751,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes29c44.44$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4272952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No75c43.46$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6618272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes35c43.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2818255.5%101 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes32c40.55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5433243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed No75c40.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.089176.9%70 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes33c39.19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2113322.6%30 W · 103 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No76c38.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6216575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf882…a45abacked Yes41c36.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.891145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No67c36.22$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.392,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No70c33.84$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6722675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes38c33.34$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.676747.8%32 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+31.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd38…ddadbacked No71c33.27$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6225449.2%125 W · 129 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No72c32.79$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6426566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No57c32.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.552,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13e1…0805backed No58c32.36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.914856.3%27 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4475…b483backed Yes41c32.16$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.992951.7%15 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf644…a9afbacked No60c32.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.192835.7%10 W · 18 L-5.1wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-50.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No76c31.45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0197570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed No79c31.01$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4715155.6%84 W · 67 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No77c30.87$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.92,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x625f…5c20backed No76c30.83$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.439666.7%64 W · 32 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec4d…087ebacked Yes39c30.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.672733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed No66c30.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023349.8%116 W · 117 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes34c29.97$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7826344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7ce…7f30backed No67c29.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0716065.6%105 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87a2…2250backed No72c29.89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6117066.5%113 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No72c29.88$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5648672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1d6…e027backed No63c29.86$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.918042.5%34 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb2…14d6backed No57c29.68$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.027754.5%42 W · 35 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-24.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes41c29.35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3139541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No67c28.71$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2456265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x610b…e158backed No51c27.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.276018.3%11 W · 49 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2db…2263backed No65c26.75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3811126.1%29 W · 82 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe166…7227backed No77c25.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.549779.4%77 W · 20 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick70cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e4…3976backed No67c25.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba6e…e245backed No75c25.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.988676.7%66 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0eb…a7d8backed No79c24.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.585874.1%43 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2097…8063backed No65c24.69$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.999668.8%66 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4c3…4613backed No62c23.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.437777.9%60 W · 17 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9982…2822backed Yes44c22.73$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.733234.4%11 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No77c22.04$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9598571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No70c21.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.221676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No68c21.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5110569.5%73 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13f3…d427backed No72c21.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1632669%225 W · 101 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.