Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 70°F or higher on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x899c90c3b1e87daabdcd7a0f3f069fcf7f7f5a0512d888a951cf2e3b8dcf3244
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 44c | 714.8$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.14 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 543.02$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 39c | 539.82$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 49c | 461.08$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.18 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 352.09$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 350.05$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 45c | 325.41$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.41 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked Yes | 67c | 317.97$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.74 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 33c | 292.66$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.03 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 59c | 256.97$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.97 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 59c | 250.68$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.99 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 24c | 248.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 55c | 231.04$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 57c | 199.65$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.45 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 58c | 192.86$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.17 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 51c | 171.19$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…286cbacked Yes | 61c | 157.23$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.11 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -75%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…4a8fbacked Yes | 59c | 155.49$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.63 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…5944backed No | 41c | 154.4$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.86 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51b3…16a2backed Yes | 35c | 150.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 149.48$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 58c | 147.56$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.93 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddc…a869backed No | 35c | 142.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.82 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…0179backed Yes | 28c | 123.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 119.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed Yes | 65c | 117.65$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 46c | 110.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.97 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c34…57f6backed No | 61c | 105.72$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 48c | 105.07$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 45c | 102.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 98.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 50c | 98.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e45…4815backed Yes | 26c | 96.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked Yes | 65c | 94.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 41c | 93.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 49c | 89.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 41c | 89.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 50c | 78.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 52c | 76.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 35c | 76.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked No | 42c | 75.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Yes | 67c | 72.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 37c | 67.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 29c | 67.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 51c | 66.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed Yes | 69c | 63.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked Yes | 67c | 62.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked Yes | 66c | 61.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…242ebacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d2…cb81backed Yes | 23c | 58.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed Yes | 64c | 50.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked Yes | 63c | 49.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 48c | 49.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked Yes | 33c | 49.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 40c | 49.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 51c | 49.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4c…ebeabacked No | 50c | 48.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 61c | 48.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 24c | 46.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed Yes | 68c | 44.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45be…0f0bbacked Yes | 36c | 44.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…0d2abacked No | 41c | 40.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked No | 61c | 39.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 49c | 39.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 49c | 38.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xced1…f456backed Yes | 59c | 38.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked No | 58c | 38.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 30c | 36.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 53c | 36.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 67c | 35.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…977cbacked Yes | 49c | 35.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 35.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d9…cb04backed Yes | 59c | 32.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…a13cbacked No | 78c | 31.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed Yes | 67c | 31.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa448…f55dbacked No | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed Yes | 65c | 29.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 66c | 29.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 50c | 29.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked Yes | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Yes | 51c | 27.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b3…109fbacked Yes | 72c | 27.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b93…963bbacked Yes | 73c | 26.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…3ee2backed Yes | 46c | 25.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed Yes | 66c | 24.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed Yes | 63c | 24.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b5…4768backed Yes | 42c | 24.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…503fbacked No | 50c | 24.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed Yes | 61c | 23.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ca…960bbacked No | 78c | 23.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 46c | 22.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed Yes | 61c | 21.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e06…c72cbacked No | 57c | 21.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 70°F or higher on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 51°F or below on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on April 10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.