Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd0e4eead8a3090ea4df5a02dbcfbe27423373b2c12b54b4100678cb2ad17dc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x756e…fe0fbacked Yes | 1c | 18,851$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78df…1167backed Yes | 6c | 652.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 26c | 600$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.1 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 549.39$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 30c | 548.76$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.71 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 14c | 538.95$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 523.18$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.3 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…f499backed Yes | 3c | 469.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +197.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 418.05$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 8c | 394.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 22c | 374.28$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.75 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 21c | 341.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.27 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 69c | 332.87$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.78 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 299.2$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 39c | 251.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.22 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 246.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 69c | 239.63$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.41 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 9c | 213.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed Yes | 8c | 201.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a9…d0e4backed Yes | 65c | 195.03$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.58 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 70c | 185.03$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.82 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 167.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 31c | 164.72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 156.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 62c | 146.45$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.56 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 9c | 117.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed Yes | 10c | 113.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 65c | 110.46$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 19c | 107.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 19c | 104.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 12c | 102.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 11c | 102.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 27c | 93.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 92.85$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked No | 53c | 92.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…4a8fbacked Yes | 37c | 90.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 89.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked Yes | 12c | 86.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 26c | 79.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 54c | 79.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c34…57f6backed Yes | 52c | 74.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 65c | 74.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 49c | 66.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 34c | 61.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 72c | 59.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc4…a340backed Yes | 77c | 49.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 40c | 47.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 34c | 47.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 65c | 46.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c7…ea4ebacked Yes | 57c | 45.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 32c | 44.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 77c | 43.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked Yes | 64c | 42.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d78…e218backed Yes | 27c | 40.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…2822backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 67c | 34.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 63c | 34.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 58c | 33.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 76c | 31.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 34c | 29.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 29.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 80c | 28.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 55c | 27.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 26.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed No | 64c | 25.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf644…a9afbacked No | 79c | 24.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…8a4cbacked Yes | 70c | 23.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 63c | 23.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 80c | 21.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x990e…cecfbacked Yes | 68c | 21.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…89b9backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 66c | 19.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed Yes | 70c | 17.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 16.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 73c | 13.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 51°F or below on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 70°F or higher on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on April 10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.