South American Leagues · resolved market
AA Estudiantes vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x147f3785f025e05b6c54a313222ac0ac1073c903263908ec1c16b5441f396f51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 58c | 996.6$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.63 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 767.13$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.13 | 5,821 | 45.4%2,642 W · 3,179 L | +97.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Under | 7c | 570.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 75c | 541.12$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.28 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 511.07$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.21 | 8,175 | 48.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L | +27.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf07…e601backed Over | 35c | 400$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 66c | 239.8$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.27 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Under | 11c | 227$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…5169backed Under | 51c | 190.29$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 49c | 178.14$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.29 | 2,175 | 43.6%948 W · 1,227 L | -56.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 66c | 157.59$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.01 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 25c | 150.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 2,598 | 39.3%1,022 W · 1,576 L | -26.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 32c | 150.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.81 | 3,807 | 38.4%1,463 W · 2,344 L | -29.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 38c | 125.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 38c | 100.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Under | 44c | 87.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6510…953bbacked Over | 60c | 81.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 65c | 73.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 47c | 71.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a03…279abacked Over | 63c | 53.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 54c | 48.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 1,271 | 56%712 W · 559 L | +71.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 55c | 44.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 1,502 | 45.9%690 W · 812 L | -18.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 66c | 31.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d3…aafbbacked Over | 42c | 26.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 64c | 23.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -5.5wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 2.5this page
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Rosario Central: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 1.5Over won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 3.5Under won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Rosario Central (-1.5)AA Estudiantes won
- Spread: CA Rosario Central (-2.5)AA Estudiantes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.