Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed cuts rates by 75 basis points in Sept meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14838de558e0e1ee7a379fc11f25f1d0678c02617cdd97fbf65ed45d50db2ddb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $493,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $450,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $493,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc09d…f2ecbacked Yes | 1c | 41,091$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…c171backed Yes | 1c | 39,916$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…4cdbbacked Yes | 2c | 21,630$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.04 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 18,615$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb8…9207backed Yes | 2c | 15,608$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.43 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecc…6ee0backed Yes | 2c | 15,000$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.83 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Yes | 1c | 12,017$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 1c | 11,169$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc05…f600backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x337e…44d3backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 3cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes | 2c | 8,952$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.02 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84a…e71fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,786$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…ebb0backed Yes | 1c | 7,692$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…84acbacked Yes | 1c | 7,037$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xece1…2b04backed Yes | 2c | 6,590$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d4…00dbbacked Yes | 2c | 6,578$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…c5cfbacked Yes | 1c | 6,563$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x111a…2bb4backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Yes | 4c | 5,444$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +69%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x435c…8079backed Yes | 2c | 5,283$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f8…8661backed Yes | 2c | 5,275$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a52…15febacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea7a…b9dfbacked Yes | 2c | 4,917$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e46…ae6dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,609$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47a1…0ff3backed Yes | 1c | 3,571$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2522…680abacked Yes | 1c | 2,442$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +400%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 1c | 2,389$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc960…6358backed Yes | 1c | 2,166$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9e…55c1backed Yes | 1c | 2,111$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41c1…b9ffbacked Yes | 2c | 2,032$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249c…06e3backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc221…92a8backed Yes | 2c | 1,870$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 1c | 1,774$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ed…ce35backed Yes | 1c | 1,636$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a0…e570backed Yes | 1c | 1,600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x039e…c5e0backed Yes | 4c | 1,517$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 2c | 1,416$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…8a04backed Yes | 5c | 1,280$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -93.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc401…11f6backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d0…c092backed Yes | 2c | 1,111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 3c | 1,084$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…6a7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,071$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4076…3531backed Yes | 2c | 1,053$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 6c | 1,050$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff33…5f2bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…3e2cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8f…4a0fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f60…fc43backed Yes | 2c | 979.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 2c | 840.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…0db2backed Yes | 1c | 785.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed Yes | 5c | 777$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b46…b5f4backed Yes | 2c | 733.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…26ecbacked Yes | 1c | 720.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 1c | 709.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e2…0f38backed Yes | 3c | 640.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906e…a4e0backed Yes | 2c | 572.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…810ebacked Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x717a…e1d5backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eca…5edbbacked Yes | 3c | 357.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…c35fbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…4c12backed Yes | 6c | 172$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.