Fifa International · resolved market
Will Germany beat Bosnia and Herzegovina?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1483bb6df77ccbda0df209c2b53378229b71e3dbad8719ad9d4f3588c67900c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0767…0901backed Yes | 78c | 6,789$5,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 20c | 6,233$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.35 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 22c | 5,001$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.22 | 168 | 35.1%59 W · 109 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Yes | 80c | 2,232$1,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.39 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd028…75f5backed Yes | 80c | 1,638$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 22c | 1,084$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.15 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd1…7df8backed Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed42…7718backed No | 20c | 487.96$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb3…92e2backed Yes | 79c | 221.99$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22bf…782dbacked Yes | 80c | 136.01$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b08…1686backed No | 21c | 96.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…3147backed No | 21c | 85.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 326 | 29.1%95 W · 231 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb9…20c1backed Yes | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…63ffbacked Yes | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146b…2e37backed Yes | 79c | 54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 78c | 49.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb84…a22cbacked Yes | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…3113backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e68…7861backed Yes | 79c | 20.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66db…7afbbacked Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…5138backed Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd821…1e8bbacked Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 80c | 15.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735c…68c7backed Yes | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d9…796fbacked Yes | 80c | 15.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d9…d9aebacked Yes | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf3…62e5backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Germany beat Bosnia and Herzegovina?this page
- Will Bosnia and Herzegovina beat Germany?No won
- Will the match between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Germany end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.