Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14a59fd43a48ef0bb90a5f63a6940fb6a62acf00f14710407cb340a6e555e427
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ninjas in Pyjamasof Ninjas in Pyjamas, ThunderTalk Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 46c | 1,932$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.17 | 1,029 | 52.3%538 W · 491 L | +27.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 56c | 990.32$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.79 | 769 | 53.4%411 W · 358 L | +13.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 53c | 975.32$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.4 | 1,156 | 49.1%568 W · 588 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Ninjas in Pyjamas | 54c | 593$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.78 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…3798backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 47c | 347.55$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x819c…0d64backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 47c | 343.16$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x548b…125abacked Ninjas in Pyjamas | 54c | 341.59$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba4…f9d7backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 54c | 333.03$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd29…44b0backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 47c | 318.39$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…b225backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 54c | 315.91$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…f688backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 43c | 169.91$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9445backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 57c | 159.91$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.76 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked ThunderTalk Gaming | 46c | 151.21$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 115 | 59.1%68 W · 47 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 54c | 138$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.02 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…5e03backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 56c | 124.09$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +5.1wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c1…928cbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 158 | 62.7%99 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…20ebbacked ThunderTalk Gaming | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 360 | 48.9%176 W · 184 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…4acdbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas | 54c | 90.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 274 | 47.8%131 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768a…96a6backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c30…d531backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 139 | 51.8%72 W · 67 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bd…376abacked ThunderTalk Gaming | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b95…b23ebacked Ninjas in Pyjamas | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1,024 | 45%461 W · 563 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group PerseveranceNinjas in Pyjamas won
- LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 WinnerNinjas in Pyjamas won
- LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 WinnerNinjas in Pyjamas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.