Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: William & Mary Tribe (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14ac97a48ecc89fd032b720d470e9fac593df9f2288c2d0c290ff3a7f3d720a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- William & Mary Tribeof William & Mary Tribe, Elon Phoenix
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b90…2194backed William & Mary Tribe | 50c | 4,979$2,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,497.43 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Elon Phoenix | 53c | 931.96$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.64 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6094…e860backed Elon Phoenix | 50c | 693.88$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.94 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Elon Phoenix | 50c | 594.75$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.38 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Elon Phoenix | 50c | 594.56$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.25 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Elon Phoenix | 50c | 509$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.78 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e3…2e82backed Elon Phoenix | 54c | 440.58$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.91 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Elon Phoenix | 50c | 297.38$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.69 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Elon Phoenix | 50c | 290.23$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.11 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…3cb4backed Elon Phoenix | 50c | 196.27$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.13 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Elon Phoenix | 50c | 119.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Elon Phoenix | 50c | 99.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 347 | 46.1%160 W · 187 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Elon Phoenix | 50c | 97.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Elon Phoenix | 50c | 87.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f34…94d0backed William & Mary Tribe | 53c | 74.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4168…a631backed Elon Phoenix | 50c | 29.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebbf…d477backed William & Mary Tribe | 51c | 20.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: William & Mary Tribe (-5.5)this page
- Elon Phoenix vs. William & Mary TribeWilliam & Mary Tribe won
- Elon Phoenix vs. William & Mary Tribe: O/U 164.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.