NHL · resolved market
Spread: Senators (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14ae2e64c2599512234fdfbcb357589e216ea400c6df71a1b0c31b024d3c9c59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabresof Senators, Sabres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Senators | 38c | 2,632$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Sabres | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 336 | 52.1%175 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Sabres | 65c | 337.69$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.69 | 247 | 49.8%123 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Senators | 35c | 307.69$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.69 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Sabres | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Senators | 35c | 302.41$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.69 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Sabres | 62c | 283.45$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.71 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Senators | 34c | 245.79$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Sabres | 62c | 168.17$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Sabres | 66c | 158.7$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…01b9backed Sabres | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Sabres | 65c | 112$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Senators | 35c | 105.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Senators | 36c | 99.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Sabres | 65c | 87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Sabres | 65c | 82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Senators | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Senators | 35c | 78.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9949…46bebacked Sabres | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Sabres | 19c | 76.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.31 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | +14.5wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +218.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Sabres | 65c | 73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Sabres | 65c | 57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Senators | 35c | 52.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Sabres | 64c | 52.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Sabres | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Senators | 35c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sabres | 66c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…bdecbacked Senators | 35c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Sabres | 65c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Senators | 34c | 35.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Sabres | 65c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Sabres | 66c | 31.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Senators | 35c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x727c…c1f5backed Sabres | 66c | 30.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2647backed Sabres | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…121cbacked Sabres | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Sabres | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6c…9a1dbacked Sabres | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…bbb2backed Sabres | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)this page
- Sabres vs. SenatorsSabres won
- Sabres vs. Senators: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.