Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14c50cb25122a91e45299158e6b06c7f6540eb01ec2221227e2efccadf348204
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 10c | 999.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…fb2fbacked Yes | 16c | 299.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 18c | 292.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 287.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 79c | 253.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 23c | 243.76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 15c | 242.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 14c | 219.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 19c | 211.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 174$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 20c | 156.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 16c | 148.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed Yes | 24c | 147.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 19c | 129.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 20c | 124.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 17c | 122.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 117$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 19c | 111.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 79c | 108.31$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 13c | 105.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 25c | 103.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe46…cb39backed Yes | 22c | 102.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 23c | 100.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 11c | 96.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 14c | 93.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 11c | 92.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 81.66$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 80c | 81.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 74.96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 74.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 15c | 70.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…c5eabacked Yes | 20c | 67.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 80c | 57.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 38.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed No | 79c | 24.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 15.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.