Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b55e88f95c96ee6588e3948dbe009b71720fee52c9c47d2a66a133ecd26f39b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 17c | 375.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 371.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 358.42$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 61c | 326.96$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.45 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 39c | 194.53$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.83 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 71c | 184.55$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.22 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa045…282abacked Yes | 38c | 146.28$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.42 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 53c | 143.17$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.83 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 70c | 139.02$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 138.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f1…1f53backed No | 67c | 132.37$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.29 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 128.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 36c | 124.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.7 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 65c | 121.8$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…4dc9backed Yes | 48c | 119.45$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.11 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…7e87backed No | 60c | 118.91$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…d480backed Yes | 79c | 112.32$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 39c | 93.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 49c | 93.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 92.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 43c | 91.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed No | 64c | 87.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 39c | 87.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…7014backed Yes | 39c | 86.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…bfd3backed No | 18c | 81.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91b2…2604backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 39c | 77.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 74.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 39c | 72.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…bf1abacked Yes | 69c | 63.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 49.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed5…ee90backed Yes | 38c | 49.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 52c | 48.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 45c | 48.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 50c | 48.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47a3…7723backed Yes | 39c | 48.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 42c | 47.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 41c | 45.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 61c | 43.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked No | 61c | 42.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 56c | 41.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 64c | 37.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fd…b67fbacked Yes | 37c | 37.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…c5eabacked Yes | 39c | 36.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 62c | 31.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed No | 65c | 29.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…eed5backed Yes | 49c | 28.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 36c | 28.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed No | 42c | 28.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 40c | 28.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 39c | 28.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6e…8115backed No | 63c | 27.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 39c | 27.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 39c | 27.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 25.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 63c | 24.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8839backed Yes | 43c | 24.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 69c | 20.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 69c | 19.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 65c | 19.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed No | 60c | 17.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.