Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0e849f70211805ceaa51324139af93db4d65e45b26ed6622764afc231c4a2f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 36c | 501.58$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.09 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 5c | 485.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 61c | 326.97$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.52 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 37c | 305.37$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.42 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 40c | 296.2$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.87 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 9c | 294.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 39c | 193.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 146.15$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 139.54$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 138.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 134.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 125$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…4dc9backed Yes | 37c | 120.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 117.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 117.36$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 39c | 108.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 33c | 106.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 39c | 93.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…7014backed Yes | 36c | 88.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 82.42$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 62c | 81.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 80.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 62c | 80.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 62c | 79.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 79.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 68c | 74.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 73.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 68c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked No | 65c | 69.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 16c | 64.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 60c | 62.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 32c | 61.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 26c | 61.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed Yes | 29c | 56.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x06d7…af53backed Yes | 35c | 55.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 60c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b2…2604backed No | 70c | 48.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 35c | 48.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 39c | 46.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 64c | 42.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 70c | 41.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…2dabbacked Yes | 39c | 40.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 36.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…eed5backed Yes | 40c | 35.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 34.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…ac1ebacked Yes | 32c | 31.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed No | 66c | 29.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 39c | 26.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 64c | 23.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked No | 62c | 20.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x546d…e135backed No | 66c | 20.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 67c | 19.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x314b…4681backed No | 61c | 17.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 65c | 16.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.