Token Launches · resolved market
Will USD.AI launch a token on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14e1d43879c68dd46f827fd0a1bd19db978fadf73238cf8fc02405cd66dafe98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37ea…f395backed No | 1c | 3,925$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 2,886$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…d696backed No | 4c | 2,501$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.01 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 2,380$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 1,315$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 1,282$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed No | 10c | 1,014$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.26 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf97e…0034backed Yes | 10c | 998.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.64 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.34per pick | 35cpaid | +185.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked Yes | 80c | 488.86$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.77 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…675fbacked No | 20c | 442.28$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.73 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -76%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60e…3f04backed No | 21c | 367.18$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.92 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 5c | 334.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 5c | 253.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 29c | 112.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae3…2c9dbacked Yes | 80c | 23.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +2,349.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USD.AI launch a token on April 21?this page
- No token launch by April 30No won
- Will USD.AI launch a token on April 10?No won
- Will USD.AI launch a token on April 11?No won
- Will USD.AI launch a token on April 12?No won
- Will USD.AI launch a token on April 13?No won
- Will USD.AI launch a token on April 14?No won
- Will USD.AI launch a token on April 15?No won
- Will USD.AI launch a token on April 16?No won
- Will USD.AI launch a token on April 17?No won
- Will USD.AI launch a token on April 20?No won
- Will USD.AI launch a token on April 22?No won
- Will USD.AI launch a token on April 30?No won
- Will USD.AI launch a token on April 5?No won
- Will USD.AI launch a token on April 7?No won
- Will USD.AI launch a token on April 8?No won
- Will USD.AI launch a token on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.